...and then there was one. Disturbance thirty three in central Bay of Campeche
General overview 1200z 17th August 2013
The northbound splinter of disturbance thirty three has merged with an uppel level front over the sourthen states and is no longer of interest.
The westbound part of thirty three is now existing independently and nearly stationary in the southern Gulf of Mexico, some 400 miles south east of Brownsville. This is likely to drift slowly to the north west over the next day or so into southern Texas. Aerial images show very little in the way of spirited surface circulation, however environmental conditons are encouraging if the system decides to organise, but given the little amount of sea time this has left, it is unlikely to do more than become a tropical depression or very weak tropical storm. Line squalls are developing to the north of the nominal centre which should then fan out across the central Gulf. Some vindication here for the EU modeller, the sole voice predicting this track.
Disturbance thirty five is now around 500 miles north-nor'west of the Amazon delta. This is trying hard to organise but is losing the fight against upper level shear and will probably veer towards the north west soon and dissipate before reaching the Caribbean.
Fish storm ERIN is about three days west of the Cape Verde Islands and seems destined to remain firmly in the central Atlantic. At present ERIN is moving west-nor'west at 12 knots. Maximum winds are estimated at between 35 and 40 knots. Aerial images show almost no cloud or thunderstorms associated with this system, just some pointless circulation. ERIN is therefore now in dry air and will weaken and should become a remnant area of low pressure within the next 3 to 4 days.
A new disturbance appears to be getting up a head of steam and leave the African coast over the next day or so.