A quiet day albeit 2013 season on track
General overview 1400z 20th August 2013
Our downbeat daily report yesterday prompted some interesting questions on the prospects for the remainder of the season. Do remember that the established average number of named storms to occur by the end of August is five, and we have just seen ERIN. The belt of Saharan sand which has blown across the convergence zone – and recorded samples as far west as Texas - is petering out and is being replaced by good, moist air. Average water temperatures with depth, essential for cyclone development, are slightly above average across the entire reporting zone – with a puzzling exception to this in the far north-east corner of the Gulf of Mexico, across the Florida panhandle where a column of cooler water has been identified. Complex pressure systems which have protected the Gulf thus far are slowly shifting north. The season is on track. It's just a quiet couple of days.
Today, disturbance thirty-five is two days into the Caribbean and thirty-six is a couple of days west of the Cape Verde Islands. Both are following the well-worn track to the west at around 12 knots, but neither is expected to develop.
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