Five active systems seaborne - none developing

General overview 23rd August 2013

Disturbance thirty eight is a new system which has formed overnight close to the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico. At present, this is centred about 150 miles due south of Mobile, Alabama and is moving west at 10 knots. This has formed rather close to land and as a consequence, limited in its ability to absorb energy from the warm waters of the Gulf and begin deep and meaningful convection. Nevertheless, this disturbance will continue west through the northern Gulf, reaching the Texas coast on Saturday where it is likely to weaken. Although no tropical development is expected, there will be fairly strong thunderstorms and some heavy showers in patches with gusts of wind up to 45 knots in isolated squalls.

Disturbance thirty five has not lived up to the expectations of the US Navy modellers and is almost ashore in Nicaragua. Widespread strong thunderstorms are likely today across the extreme western Caribbean and into Central America, but development is not expected.

Disturbance thirty seven disappeared into some murky frontal weather in the north Atlantic overnight.

As expected, disturbance thirty six gave up the ghost last night, having battled bravely but pointlessly against dry Saharan air.

As expected, a new disturbance left the African coast yesterday, designated thirty nine. This launched off the coast of southern Mauretania, which is a little too far north to take energy and moisture from the storm fuel-rich convergence zone. Unless this system can shift south as it heads west at 12 knots - highly unlikely - this will also fall foul of desert air.

Stand easy 

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