A possible development headed for the Bay of Campeche

General overview 1700z 24th August 2013

Disturbance thirty eight is now centred around eighty miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana as it heads west at a leisurely 7 knots. Since coast-hugging low pressure systems try to draw half their energy and moisture from unyielding land, this has struggled to organise and is unlikely to develop. On this track, the disturbance is expected to stay close inshore and run parallel to Interstate 10, crossing into Texas tomorrow where we expect it to dissipate. Regardless of development, this system will bring some strong squalls with gusts of 45 to 55 knots and heavy rain to the northern Gulf of Mexico and coastal areas for the next 24 hours.

You have to hand it to the US Navy modellers, who were alone in forecasting an eleventh hour resurrection and shift north for disturbance thirty five, when the general concensus was that this would disappear ashore in Belize. The disturbance is centred ashore over the southern end of the Yucatan peninsular, very much alive and making a spirited approach to the Bay of Campeche where it is likely to emerge over the next 24 hours. Ennvironmental conditions are quite favourable for develppment, but this does depend very much on how much time thirty five remains seaborne. If the system stays close to land, development will be constrained and is it likely to track quickly ashore into south-eastern Mexico. There is a slight chance that this could develop into a decent tropical depression or even a week storm if manages to get into deep water and become organised. Way to go, Navy.

Disturbance thirty nine is centred about a day and half west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west at 12 knots. Aerial footage show some decent cloud. Moisture will give this disturbance some encouragement and if this persists, may anable a full Atlantic crossing later next week. This suits the handful of modellers who are expecting development of some kind around the Leeward Islands in seven days time.

Stand easy 

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