Five active systems and a general increase in development expected

General overview 1800z 25th August 2013

Disturbance thirty eight is centred about 30 miles east-sou'east of Galveston and is still pushing west at around 5 knots. There is no real change to yesterday's outlook. This disturbance is keen and environmental conditons are right, but proximity to land weakens convection, which is a lucky break for those in coastal areas and the offshore oil leases, albeit a wet and windy lucky break. This system is likely to strengthen a little before if beaches somewhere to the south west of Galveston in the next 24 hours and in the meantime will produce heavy squalls with gusts of 45 to 55 knots in places as well as some very heavy rainfall.

A couple of hundred miles due south, centred around 200 miles east-sou'east of Tuxpan, disturbance thirty five appears to have the bit between its teeth. Aerial images just received show some surface circulation and evidence of vertical convection. This cyclone has had adequate sea time to organise and is likely to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm soon. The disturbance continues to move to the west-nor'west at 7 knots and will make a landfall near Tuxpan tomorrow morning, possibly as a week and short-lived tropical storm.

Disturbance forty one is a new tropcial wave in the eastern Caribbean, centred south of the Dominican Republic. The disturbance is causing scattered thunderstorms across the region but there are no signs of a circulation. A continued westward movement at 10 knots should take the disturbance inland into Central America or southern Mexico in a few days. Development is not expected.

Disturbance thirty nine is almost mid-Atlantic now and has crept north of the fuel-rich convergence zone and may dissipate as a consequence. No development is expected as it tracks west at 12 knots.

Some excitement today over disturbance forty which is just emerging off the west coast of Africa as this seems to be the first system to take advantage of the dwindling belt of Saharan air. If this makes a clean crossing, it will reach the eastern Caribbean in eight to nine days. Beyond potential development of disturbance forty, a number of short and medium-range predictors are signaling a burst of development in the Atlantic Basin to close out the month of August and extend into the first week or two of September. There is chatter today amongst the modellers that the season will go up a gear this week - and not just amongst the usual catastrophists.

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