New low pressure cells and chattering modellers show renewed activity
General overview 1800z 26th August 2013
Disturbance thirty-five, which had been written off by all except the US Navy modellers last Thursday, made tropical storm status last night in the Bay of Campeche as FERNAND , albeit short lived as anticiated, making a landfall to the south of Veracruz, just before dawn local time. Maximum winds at landfall were estimated to be between 45 and 50 knots, but have now weekened to 35 knots. FERNAND is weakening rapidly as it heads inland towards higher ground now and is probably already down to a tropical depression and will dissipate later today over the mountains of Mexico. Very heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides are expected for areas between Veracruz and Tampico throughout today and into tomorrow.
Disturbance thirty-eight is ashore in Texas and has dissipated.
Short-lived disturbance forty-one is approaching eastern Nicaragua, westbound at 12 knots and likely to ground in the next 12 hours without significant impact.
A new disturbance - tagged forty two - has developed around 300 miles due north of the Amazon delta and is moving west at 7 knots. This disturbance is likely to move through the Windward Islands in about 2 days time producing squally weather to the islands as it passes. Cloud displacement shoiws that tropical development is unlikely.
Hapless disturbance thirty nine is in the central Atlantic, still pushing bravely and pointlessley to the west at 10 knots in dry air. This is unlikely to be visible tomorrow.
Disturbance forty is now about half a day west of the Cape Verde Islands at 12 knots. There are few squalls associated with the disturbance. Yesterday, the majority of the computer modellers were indicating that this system would develop into a tropical storm or a hurricane as it moved westward across the Atlantic, however today, model guidance indicates that development is less likely but all eyes are on the African coast. Computer modellers are developing multiple tropical systems astern of disturbance forty, which are expected to move off of the coast of Africa during the next couple of weeks. Only one exception - the Candian modeller is still throwing his hat in with disturbance forty.