Weakening systems in the west, prospects growing in the east.

General overview 1400z 27th August 2013

Disturbance forty-one is ashore in central America now and will emerge into the eastern Pacific later today or tonight. Off radar for us.

Disturbance forty two is a day and a half east of the Windward Islands, travelling west at 7 knots. Tropical development remains unlikely but it could bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms as it approaches the Caribbean in around 24 hours. This doesn't seem to have any intention to organise, and tropical development is not expected.

Disturbance thirty nine is a weakening open wave now, centred more or less 500 miles north-nor'east of the Amazon delta, but still moving west at 12 knots. This system is a mere shadow of its earlier promise and, once again, only one commentator has any faith in this developing. And that's not us – nor is it our new reliable friends in the US Navy.

Disturbance forty is still the toast of the town and centred around a day west of the Cape Verde Islands, pushing west at 12 knots. This morning's imagery shows some signs of circulation. Opinions are divided between this slipping to the north of the convergence zone and losing the benefit of warm, wet air and those who see this as developing and arriving with something of a fanfare in the Caribbean next weekend.

The chattering modellers and forecasters continue to become excited over the train of low pressure cells lining up to leave the African coast over the next couple of weeks. Indeed some are venturing that there may be multiple tropical storms and or hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic, between Africa and the Caribbean over the next several weeks. Of course, this is the storm season, and they have to come from somewhere, so this guess is as good as any.

Stand easy 

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