Four active systems and excitement over the African coast

General overview 1400z 28th August 2013

A new small low pressure cell designated as disturbance forty-three developed from an upper level trough, just to the south of Florida last night. The system is nearly stationary but is expected to drift to the northwest over the next day or two. This is fairly weak and close to land thus unlikely to develop.

Plucky disturbance forty is proving a tough cookie and showing some signs of organisation, despite overwhelming odds against. Currently located in the central Atlantic and moving to the west at 12 knots, there is now a slight chance that this may strengthen but it is still hampered by residual dry air. It will likely track to the west-northwest and pass near the northeastern Caribbean around Tuesday of next week.

Disturbances thirty nine and forty two are moving slowly west each about one day's steaming either side of the Lesser Antilles. Neither is expected to develop but will bring enhanced showers and thunderstorms to the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean over the next couple of days.

A strong disturbance will emerge from Africa later today or tomorrow. Most computer models indicate it could quickly strengthen and become a depression or tropical storm within the next 3-5 days. A track to the northwest into the open Atlantic is expected. Additional waves moving off the African coast over the next several weeks are expected to encounter favourable conditions for development.

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