Three westbound disturbances and a long term prospect over West Africa
General outlook 29th August 2012
Disturbance forty three is currently stationary near the southern tip of the Florida peninsular but is expected to track to the northwest and weaken over the next couple of days, however an upper-level low pressure system over the area could continue to generate showers and thunderstorms over the Florida Strait and the southern Florida peninsular today and tomorrow. The upper low will weaken over the weekend and dissipate by early next week.
Disturbances thirty nine is still producing a small area of thunderstorms just east of the Lesser Antilles and is moving west-nor'west around 10 knots. It will bring a risk of heavy showers and storms to the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through tomorrow but conditions remain unfavourable for development and it will dissipate by early next week.
Disturbance forty is about 72 hours east of the Caribbean and moving west-nor'west at 15 mph. Despite the previous pathetic profile, associated thunderstorm activity has increased and environmental conditions have improved for strengthening over the next couple of days. Conditions will however become a little less favourable over the weekend and development chances will decrease. Regardless of development, it will track towards the eastern Caribbean and approach the Lesser Antilles late Saturday or early on Sunday.
The much-heralded strong disturbance – probably forty four - over west Africa will emerge later today. Conditions appear favourable for immediate organisation and strengthening some but most indications are that it will begin weakening in about 2 or 3 days as it tracks north-westward into the open Atlantic.