A busy day across the region but no immediate threat

General overview 1300z 31st August 2013

An enhanced area of showers and storms has persisted over the past couple of hours in the northeastern Gulf along a stationary front. Tropical development is not expected, and it has not been given a disturbance number.

As expected, disturbance forty five, which was a weak open wave betwen Belize and the Bahamas yesterday, drifted ashore unnoticed overnight into central America.

A new disturbance appeared overnight about one day astern of forty five, designated forty six. This is centred around midway between Curacao and Panama and is expected to move to the west-nor'west at around 10 knots. Although this tropical wave will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms, possibly as far north as the Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days, development appears unlikely.

Disturbance thirty-nine is following in an orderly queue astern of forty five and forty six, just passing the Neterlands Antilles. This is little more than a very weak tropical wave moving west at 12 knots. This is not producing any showers and development is not expected.

Disturbance forty is the disturbance that refuses to give up the fight. This has never really been viewed as a viable cyclone - with the exception of one modeller who has hung his hat on this to develop. This is now 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands and pushing west at 12 knots. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely to reach the Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Disturbance forty four left the African coast like a greyhound from a trap, but leapt the fence and headed straight into the stands by taking an early curve towards the north. To continue this confusing analoogy, if this does develop, it is far more likely to bite a hot dog seller in mid-Atlantic wilderness, than pass the finishing post in the western Atlantic.

Stand easy. 

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