Three systems with a glint in their eye...

General overview 1500z 1st September 2013

The line of three systems which formed an orderly queue across the southern Caribbean yesterday, is down to one. The leader, forty five disappeared ashore in Belize, weak and unnoticed whilst third-place thirty nine disappeared as it passed the Netherlands Antilles.

Mid-convoy disturbance forty-six is in the north-west Caribbean, having turned to the west-nor'west at 12 knots and has a clear run of favourable conditions towards the Bay of Campeche where, subject to not losing too much momentum over the Yucatan peninsular, will make an appearance in the Gulf on Tuesday where conditions will be favourable.

Disturbance forty is passing the Lesser Antilles as I type. Development chances appear to be increasing as it shows some sign of surface organisation from aerial imagery. This has a clear run to the Gulf of Mexico and is also one to watch.

A new disturbance forty seven has developed around 350 miles to the north-east of the Amazon basin. This too looks organised with persistent bands of showers and thunderstorms and has a decent development prospect as it moves to the west-nor'west at 10 knots.

To extend yesterday's puzzling analogy of disturbance forty-four leaving the African coast like a greyhound from a trap, not only has this jumped the fence into the stands and chaged off in completely the wrong direction, but has now leapt the turnstile and is out in the street chasing a cat. This will head north and has more chance of having an impact on Portugal than the western hemisphere.

Stand easy.