GABRIELLE downgraded in uncertain conditions in the NE Caribbean

General overview 1600z 5th September 2013

Disturbance forty six has made a late attempt at organising in the west-central Bay of Campeche, with thunderstorms increasing. There is just a trace of a weak low level circulation centre forming however this is rather late in the day and it is unlikely to do more than develop into a tropical depression before moving ashore. Most of the associated thunderstorms will be confined to the central and southwest Gulf of Mexico, with a heavy rain threat for much of eastern Mexico from the Texas border southward to about Veracruz.

In the north-east Caribbean, the two courting systems are not getting on at all well, and the expected consummation has not taken place. Disturbance forty became tropical storm GABRIELLE but has since been downgraded again. The centre is now about 100 miles west-sou'west of Puerto Rico and is headed north-west at 7 knots. The amorous intentions of disturbance forty seven as the two systems flirted with one another have actually caused a breakdown in vertical structure and current wind speeds of 35 to 45 knots could be peak strength.General overview 1600z 5th September 2013.

Disturbance forty six has made a late attempt at organising in the west-central Bay of Campeche, with thunderstorms increasing. There is just a trace of a weak low level circulation centre forming however this is rather late in the day and it is unlikely to do more than develop into a tropical depression before moving ashore. Most of the associated thunderstorms will be confined to the central and southwest Gulf of Mexico, with a heavy rain threat for much of eastern Mexico from the Texas border southward to about Veracruz.

In the north-east Caribbean, the two courting systems are not getting on at all well, and the expected consummation has not taken place. Disturbance forty became tropical storm GABRIELLE but has since been downgraded again. The centre is now about 100 miles west-sou'west of Puerto Rico and is headed north-west at 7 knots. The amorous intentions of disturbance forty seven as the two systems flirted with one another have actually caused a breakdown in vertical structure and current wind speeds of 35 to 45 knots could be peak strength.

GABREILLE's survival or revival in the short term, will be influenced by its proximity to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as the unsettling advances of disturbance forty seven just to its northeast. These two influences will act to slow the rate of intensification. There is still a possibility of a short period of time when GABRIELLE will be north of the Greater Antilles, where the wind shear will be low enough to allow for strengthening.

It is not easy to pick out disturbance forty seven from aerial imagery, the entire area of the north-east Caribbean being under a brief mess of confused cloud. Observed reports put disturbance forty seven less than a hundred miles to the northeast of GABRIELLE and moving north west at 8 knots. This system is also reliant on its fledgling relationship with GABRIELLE for development or dissipation. Until the inevitable congress occurs, the final outcome is hard to call but most observers are still backing a dash into the Atlantic, well clear of the eastern seaboard. Between these two systems, patches of heavy rain and line squalls will be moving intermittently across the north-east Caribbean.

Disturbance forty-eight is two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west-nor'west at 8 knots. It is becoming increasingly likely that this system will fade into the monsoon trough with a larger disturbance emerging from Africa to dominate the tropical eastern Atlantic in the next day or two.

Stand easy but a weather watch on the north-east Caribbean.
GABREILLE's survival or revival in the short term, will be influenced by its proximity to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as the unsettling advances of disturbance forty seven just to its northeast. These two influences will act to slow the rate of intensification. There is still a possibility of a short period of time when GABRIELLE will be north of the Greater Antilles, where the wind shear will be low enough to allow for strengthening.

It is not easy to pick out disturbance forty seven from aerial imagery, the entire area of the north-east Caribbean being under a brief mess of confused cloud. Observed reports put disturbance forty seven less than a hundred miles to the northeast of GABRIELLE and moving north west at 8 knots. This system is also reliant on its fledgling relationship with GABRIELLE for development or dissipation. Until the inevitable congress occurs, the final outcome is hard to call but most observers are still backing a dash into the Atlantic, well clear of the eastern seaboard. Between these two systems, patches of heavy rain and line squalls will be moving intermittently across the north-east Caribbean.

Disturbance forty-eight is two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west-nor'west at 8 knots. It is becoming increasingly likely that this system will fade into the monsoon trough with a larger disturbance emerging from Africa to dominate the tropical eastern Atlantic in the next day or two.

Stand easy but a weather watch on the north-east Caribbean. 

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