Ex-GABRIELLE headed north and may redevelop but without impact ashore
General overview 1600z 7th September 2013
Disturbance forty six had an eleventh hour revival and was briefly upgraded to a tropical depression before landing in south-east Mexico, where it is now dissipating but with continued heavy rain in places.
Newlyweds ex-GABRIELLE and distrubance forty seven seem to be maintaining some separation although still interacting to the north-east of the Caribbean. Ex-GABRIELLE is now centred around 200 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands headed north at 5 knots. Continued interaction with forty-seven is interrupting surface circulation. This is making any predictions of development of direction a matter for caution. The general view is that this system will continue north and pass around mid-way betwen the Carolinas and Bermuda before curving off into the Atlantic. This has a fairly limited span at the moment, so unlikely to feature on the eastern seaboard if it maintains this course. There is a chance of development - perhaps even a rebirth as a tropical or sub-tropical storm after passing Bermuda.
Some forecasters are still reporting disturbance forty seven as a separate entity, but all current reports give a similar descrotion as that for ex-GABRIELLE albeit with a small distance separating them.
Disturbance forty-eight is loafing around in the mid-Atlantic, currently stationary in dry air. Environmental conditions are not favourable for development.
Disturbance forty-nine is looking good as it prepares to emerge into the Atlantic, headed west-nor'west at about 10 knots. This has a high chance of becoming an early tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic and thus likely to suffer the effects of premature stimulation and have no impact on the western Atlantic.