Ex-GABRIELLE headed north and may redevelop but without impact ashore

General overview 1600z 7th September 2013

Disturbance forty six had an eleventh hour revival and was briefly upgraded to a tropical depression before landing in south-east Mexico, where it is now dissipating but with continued heavy rain in places.

Newlyweds ex-GABRIELLE and distrubance forty seven seem to be maintaining some separation although still interacting to the north-east of the Caribbean. Ex-GABRIELLE is now centred around 200 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands headed north at 5 knots. Continued interaction with forty-seven is interrupting surface circulation. This is making any predictions of development of direction a matter for caution. The general view is that this system will continue north and pass around mid-way betwen the Carolinas and Bermuda before curving off into the Atlantic. This has a fairly limited span at the moment, so unlikely to feature on the eastern seaboard if it maintains this course. There is a chance of development - perhaps even a rebirth as a tropical or sub-tropical storm after passing Bermuda.

Some forecasters are still reporting disturbance forty seven as a separate entity, but all current reports give a similar descrotion as that for ex-GABRIELLE albeit with a small distance separating them.

Disturbance forty-eight is loafing around in the mid-Atlantic, currently stationary in dry air. Environmental conditions are not favourable for development.

Disturbance forty-nine is looking good as it prepares to emerge into the Atlantic, headed west-nor'west at about 10 knots. This has a high chance of becoming an early tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic and thus likely to suffer the effects of premature stimulation and have no impact on the western Atlantic.

Stand easy