HUMBERTO hardening to become the seasonís first hurricane

General overview 1400z 9th September 2013

Disturbance fifty is in the western Caribbean approaching the Yucatan peninsular and will move into the Bay of Campeche by late Wednesday or early Thursday. Once seaborne, it will move very slowly to the west or west-nor'west in the Bay of Campeche between Thursday and the weekend, gathering moisture from the warm waters below. A straw poll across the many observers shows a 40 to 50% chance of development into a tropical depression or storm. The main feature of this is its size. This will have a vast windfield across the entire Bay of Campeche, much of south-eastern Mexico and into the northern Gulf across the coast of Texas, bringing heavy rainfall and strong squalls. If this does go the extra mile and develop into a tropical storm, this is likely to land in Mexico and steer clear of the northern waters and oil leases of the Gulf. If it does occur in the Bay of Campeche, then the storm would most likely track westward into Mexico.

The remains of GABRELLE are centred about 400 miles south-sou'west of Bermuda and moving slowly north east. This system is likely to cause a couple inches of rain and gusty winds on Bermuda through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Prolonged meteorological nuptials with disturbance forty-seven drained all enthusiasm from poor GABRIELLE leaving only a slim chance that this will recover much vertical stimulation, although conditions in the area around Bermuda are favourable for development. Even if this does reach tropical storm strength, it is probably destined to end its days at sea.

Disturbance forty-eight is still skulking around the central Atlantic and continuing to weaken. This has had it.

Tropical storm HUMBERTO is the toast of the town today. Currently centred around 90 miles of the Cape Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots and westbound at 10 knots mph. Storm warnings are in effect in the Cape Verde Islands, although the storm is probably at its closest point of approach to the islands now. A turn to the north-nor'west is expected in 24 hours. Aerial imagery shows both surface circulation and some evidence of good, stiff vertical organisation. Environmental conditions are very favourable for strengthening and HUMBERTO is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday, however there is no chance whatsoever of this reaching the west and will thrash around wildly in the east Atlantic, bullying sailors, scaring fish and perhaps even dousing sun-worshippers in the Canary Islands.

Storm cones aloft in the Cape Verde Islands, otherwise, stand easy.
 

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