Four active systems developing today - chronological peak season

General overview 1400z 10th September 2013

Today's aerial images of cloud formations over the east of the Yucatan peninsular show a significant increase in vertical organisation. It can be safely assumed that thunderstorms associated with disturbance fifty have increased over the past 24 hours as the disturbance moves to the west-nor'west at 5 knots. This won't develop before a short crossing of the peninsular but conditions are favourable for this to become a tropical storm after it emerges into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. This anticipated landfall will be between Tampico and Brownsville late on Sunday as a moderate to strong tropical storm. Most modellers are not going as far as predicting a hurricane however, conditions are favourable and that is certainly a possibility.

GABRIELLE recovered from post-nuptial lethargy following an energy sapping mating experience with aggressive suitor disturbance forty seven and is back to tropical storm strength with maximum winds of just over 35 knots. The current forecast takes the centre near Bermuda soon and then north towards Newfoundland albeit by this time it should have transitioned to an extra-tropical storm with winds of just 40 to 50 knots.

Persistent disturbance forty-eight is not giving up. Now centred about 850 miles east of the north east Caribbean, satellite imagery indicates a persistent low-level circulation centre with squalls displaced to the north and west. There is a chance that this disturbance could become a tropical storm over the next 2-3 days, but its track will be out to sea to the north west and north.

Tropical storm HUMBERTO continues to slowly strengthen this morning as it tracks just south west of the Cape Verde Islands. With environmental conditions favourable for continued strengthening for the next 48 hours, HUMBERTO is likely to become a hurricane later today as it tracks to the northwest in the far eastern Atlantic. By Friday, conditions in the cyclone's path become less favourable and HUMBERTO should begin to weaken as it turns to the west-nor'west. There is no threat to the western part of the Atlantic Basin, the Caribbean Sea or the United States.

Stand easy