HUMBERTO - the first hurricane of the 2013 season, with a second prospect on radar

General overview 1400z 11th September 2013
 
Disturbance fifty is located over the southern Yucatan peninsular, moving to the west-nor'west at 6 knots. This general track is likely for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, the disturbance may turn to the north-west. The latest model guidance indicates a track south of that depicted yesterday. While this decreases the chance that the system moving into Texas, a track towards Texas cannot entirely be ruled out. In any event, the system is expected to bring very heavy rainfall to parts of Central America, the Gulf Coast of Mexico, as well as south Texas. Flooding and mudslides are also likely. Once the system moves into the Bay of Campeche, environmental conditions appear very favourable for tropical storm and perhaps even hurricane development.
 
Tropical Storm GABRIELLE is currently centred around 50 miles west of Bermuda and moving to the north west at 5 knots. A turn to the north to north-east is expected within the next 24 hours. This heading would take GABRIELLE towards Atlantic Canada this weekend. Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has weakened slightly and winds are now estimated at between 40 and 45 knots. Little change in intensity is likely during the next few days. Prior to reaching Atlantic Canada, GABRIELLE is expected to transition to an extratropical storm. Regardless as to whether this remains tropical, it is likely to bring strong winds of at least 40 knots to parts of Newfoundland.
 
Disturbance forty-eight is located around 600 miles due north of the Amazon delta, moving west at just under 10 knots. A turn to the west-nor'west is likely during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions remain somewhat unfavourable for further development.
 
HUMBERTO has intensified into a hurricane. This is now centred around a day and haIf west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving to the north-nor'west at 6 knots and is expected to continue to do so for the next 2 to 3 days and thereafter, a turn to the west-nor'west is likely. HUMBERTO is not expected to threaten any land areas, thus we will not be reporting in any great detail.
 
Stand easy but a weather watch needed in the Bay of Campeche 
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