A new storm developing in the Bay of Campeche

General overview 2300z 12th September 2013

Tropical disturbance fifty is seaborne in the Bay of Campeche. In the last 90 minutes, following recognition of a clear well-defined centre of circulation and signs of some juicy convection, the National Hurricane Centre has upgraded this system to a tropical depression. Given the speed of development and favourable, it is likely that this will again be upgraded to a tropical storm soon. It does not look as if this is going to be a quick crossing and is likely to loaf around in the south of the Bay of Campeche giving the cyclone addional time to make mischief. On the basis of this, the Government of Mexico is already issuing storm warnings for sections of the Gulf coast. The present primary threat is from very heavy rainfall. At present, maximum wind speeds are between 35 and 45 knots but this will increase. A rather pointless hurricane severity rating of 1 (0 size, 1 intensity) has been given, but more importantly. a precicted maximum of 9 (4 size, 5 intensity). Personally, I'd say this is a little cautious. Most modellers take centre inland in about 72 hours in the vicinity of Tampico as a category 1 hurricane - whilst there seems to be aqgreement - tonight at least, that this will not go north into Texas and the oil leases.

Ex -tropical storm - now depression GABRIELLE is 250 miles nor'west of Bermuda and increasing that distance 5 knots. A turn to the north should occur soon, followed by a north-easterly motion. This would take the system in the general direction of eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland late Friday and early Saturday. Winds are estimated at 35 knots. Some slight reintensification is possible during the next day or so, along with a transition into an extratropical storm. By the time GABRIELLE reaches Atlantic Canada, it should be extratropical and for our purposes, will be outside of our area of interest, if not already.

Disturbance forty-eight is around 900 miles due north of the Amazon moving to the west at 5 knots. A turn to the northwest is likely during the next couple of days. The disturbance should pass north of the Leeward Islands. Wind shear is likely to prevent development during the next few days. However, environmental conditions may become more favourable early next week.

HUMBERTO remains a hurricane in the open east Atlantic. It should turn to the west-nor'west in about 12 hours time. After about 72 hours, it should turn back to the northwest. HUMBERTO is not forecast to threaten any land areas. This has reached its first peak in intensity. Environmental conditions should become less favourable for development. Therefore, weakening should begin although, in about 4 to 5 days, conditions are likely to become more favourable and may intensify once again next week. Whatever this does, it remains a fish storm.

Storm cones aloft on the Mexican coast between Coatzacoalcos to Barra De Nauta, othwerwise stand easy.