Heavy rain a precursor to a new storm in the Bay of Campeche
General overview 1330z 13th September 2013
Tropical depression ten is located around 250 miles south east of Tampico, Mexico, nudging to the west at walking pace with maximum wind speeds of 35 knots. This slow forward motion is allowing quality bonding time with fertile warm waters of the Bay of Campeche. Good storm fuel. This cyclone will become a tropical storm soon. Typically, the moment I hit ‘Send'. Dependable European and American modellers are in general agreement that the centre of this system will make a landfall 70 miles north of Tampico late Sunday or early on Monday. This is creeping north on previous forecasts despite continued assurances from the same sources that this will not impact on Texas or the offshore oil interests, that is to say not as far as hurricane force winds are concerned. Rainfall is another matter. This system is dragging huge quantities of warm water aloft at warp speed and will be dumping this ashore over a large area. Flooding is a significant possibility.
GABRIELLE has weakened to a depression, centred 300 miles south sou'east of Nantucket and moving north-nor'east at 12 knots. Acceleration and a veer to the northeast is taking place now and GABRIELLE should reach eastern Nova Scotia and Newfoundland tonight as a fairly dull, extratropical storm – nothing above 35 knot winds. This is what is described in Newfoundland as ‘a normal day'.
Disturbance forty eight is located about 250 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving to the west-nor'west at 8 knots. A turn to the northwest is likely during the next couple of days. On this heading, the disturbance should pass north of the Leeward Islands. There are few squalls associated with the disturbance but this is not showing much in the way of excitement.
HUMBERTO is over the open east Atlantic and staying there with no threat to land areas. Winds are estimated at 70 knots but past peak and weakening now, although there is a slim chance of intensification early next week but still going from nowhere to nowhere in the sub-tropical Atlantic wilderness.
Storm cones aloft on the Mexican coast and raincoats across the entire coasts of eastern Mexico and Texas. Otherwise, stand easy.