INGRID reaches category one hurricane intensity
General overview 2100z 14th September 2013 from west to east -
Aerial images realeased in the past few minutes show that tropical storm INGRID has a well developed eye and cloud patterns indicate a robust eye-wall replacement cycle. We consider this to now be a category one hurricane. A formal announcement will be released by the National Hurricane Centre within the hour shortly followed by the professional observers. All environmental factors appear to be favourable for further strenghtening although this is still not expected to become a major hurricane. INGRID is centred 220 miles east-sou'east of Tampico, and moving north-nor-east still at walking pace, thus enjoying plentiful and unrestricted development time. Current wind speeds are reported to be 70 gusting to 85 knots with a hurricane severity rating of 8 (3 size, 5 intensity) and an estimated peak at landfall of 11 (4 size, 7 intensity) over a 115 mile windfield. Over the next 36 hours, INGRID's track should shift from a northward direction to a westward direction as high pressure builds to the north of the storm. On this path, we expect INGRID to reach the coast of Mexico, just north of Tampico, around noon on Monday and will then west inland across Mexico until dissipation. Development is further assisted by moisture from tropical storm MANUEL cureently advancing on Mexico from the Pacific. This will be a headline-grabbing rainmaker. Heavy rains are likely to continue as the inflow into the system passes over the high mountains with flooding and mudslides likely in some areas. 10 to 15 inches of rain are likely with isolated totals of 20 to 25 inches possible extending 150 miles to the right of the path and 75 miles to the left of the path of the center. The highest totals are most likely to occur over mountainous terrain. A tidal surge of 2 to 5 feet above normal will be possible within 50 miles of where the centre makes landfall. Some squalls are likely to affect the oil leases tomorrow but sustained winds that far north are expected to remain below 35 mph.
Disturbance forty-eight is centred well the the east-nor-east of the Caribbean and moving west-nor'west at 12 knots which will take the system clear to the north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In 3 to 4 days time, this system should slow down and possibly stall east of the Bahamas. An incoming trough should lift it out to the northeast and away from the continental United States.
Remnant low HUMBERTO in the east-central subtropical Atlantic has lost moisture and vertical organisation, thus also loses its definition as a storm or hurricane despite strong winds. Believe me, a seafarer facing current winds speeds gusting over 50 knots won't be interested in technicial definition. This system has current hurricane severity rating of 3 (2 size, 1 intensity) and a predicted maximum of 9 (4 size, 5 intensity) with a widening 250 mile windfield as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough. Over the next couple of days this will remain a remnant low, producing intermittent bursts of thunderstorms and will then recover, becoming a tropical storm once again. In around 5 days from now, this could become a hurricane once again, far from any land areas. Beyond then, HUMBERTO should transition into an extratropical storm.
Stand by Tampico and the entire coast of south east Mexico