INGRID blowing a hooley, but some eye wall weakening

General overview 1500z 15th September 2013 from west to east -

Hurricane INGRID is centred about 125 miles east of Tampico and headed north west at 5 knots. Wind speeds are reported to be 80 gusting 100 knots. The current HSI is 9 (3 size, 6 intensity) and peak forecast at landfall unchanged at 11 (4 size, 7 intensity) . INGRID will shortly shift to a west-nor'west and west track as high pressure builds to the north. On such a track, the storm will reach the coast of Mexico just north of Tampico on Monday morning. Satellite images show some ragged edges to the eye wall. A reconnaisance aircraft is still investigating this but based on some of the data, the intensity might slighlly lower due to a burst of wind shear, possibly from MANUEL. Rapid weakening is forecast to occur after landfall. Despite wind speeds, the primary threat is still from very heavy rainfall.

Disturbance fortyy eight is still drifting aimlessly to the noth east of the Caribbean, At the moment, this is barely discernible - just a hint of swlrling cloud moving to the west-northwest. Development appears unlikely over the next few days.

The remains of HUMBERTO are loafing around in the middle of the sub-tropical Atlantic with maximum winds of just 35 knots but conditions are looking good and HUMBERTO could resurrect as a tropical storm again tomorow and even regain hurricane status into next week. Still only bothering fish though.

A new disturbance fifty one has just left the African coast. Development is possible although cloud formations show disinterest at present.

Stand by Tuxpan 

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