Five active systems across the reporting area
General overview 2200z 17th September 2013 from west to east -
The latest satellite image of the south western Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche is a bit of a donkey's breakfast. INGRID has weakened to a remnant low over the high mountains in central Mexico. This is off radar for us although still causing flash flooding and mudslides through tonight in central Mexico. and there is still some windfield extremity turbulence over the Bay of Campeche.
A little to the south, disturbance fifty two appeared out of nowhere yesteday close to the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsular. This produced some eleventh hour surface organisation before heading ashore and is now making a beeline for the Bay of Campeche where all going to plan, it will appear by Wednesday morning. In the Bay of Campeche, forecasters estimate that the disturbance has about 40 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The disturbance should continue moving to the west-nor'west, reaching the western Bay of Campeche by early Friday. It is likely that the disturbance will continue into Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday.
A new trough of low pressure designated disturbance fifty three is already passing south of Florida and headed harmlessy for the north-western Bahamas. Development is not expected in the short term althugh there is a slight chance of some development in three to five days as it turns northeastward toward Bermuda.
It is not entirely surprisinng that pathetic disturbance forty eight wimped out about three hundred miles north east of the Caribbean. Game over.
Tropical storm HUMBERTO is located some 1000 miles southwest of the Azores and is creeping north at 5 knots. HUMBERTO is rather disorganised at this time, but some strengthening is forecast during the next few days as it moves to the north and then north-nor'east. This will be a fish storm with some peripheral impact on the north west European and the British Isles in four to seven days.
Disturbance fifty-one is centred just two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west-nor'west at 5 knots. For today at least, development is not expected.