A developing cyclone entering the Bay of Campeche - destination unknown
General overview 1800z 18th September 2013 from west to east -
Despite having spent 24 hours or so bouncing over land, disturbance fifty two is unusually well-organised as it currently crosses the beach over the southern Yucatan peninsular, heading seaward into the Bay of Campeche, where it has a very good chance of developing into a tropical storm. There is some upper level confusion making a forecast difficult however, there is some smart money is on this stalling mid-Bay of Campeche. If this happens unchallenged by upper level shear, the system may draw energy from the warm waters below and develop further to form a tropical storm. Frontal activity may create wind shear however this will not be apparent for at least 24 hours. There is no firm consensus on track although one would normally expect this to follow INGRID into Mexico. One fairly reliable modeller has this following an arc across the Gulf of Mexico, a little to the south of the oil leases and then heading north-east.
Disturbance fifty three has opened into a weakening trough to the east of Florida as it moves east at 12 knots. The chances of this developing as it approaches the Bahamas are slight.
Tropical storm HUMBERTO is centred in no-man's land, over 1000 miles west-sou'west of the Azores and moving to the north-nor'west at 5 knots. The cyclone is quite fragmented but it is still possible that HUMBERTO will strengthen as it moves to the north and then northeast. This is still destined to be absorbed into north Atlantic murk without significant impact on any land mass other than adding to the generally gloomy weather over north-west Europe and the British Isles.
Disturbance fifty one failed soon after launch and flopped in the far eastern Atlantic.