Bay of Campeche depression/storm developing in an uncertain environment

General overview 1700z 19th September 2013 from west to east -

Disturbance fifty two is now over the Bay of Campeche about 260 miles east-sou'east of Tampico, Mexico, moving to the west at 10 knots. A turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 48 hours. This disturbance is enjoying life and has gradually become better organised since it took the plunge into the Bay of Campeche this time yesterday. Environmental conditions appear favourable for the next 48 hours and there is a strong chance that this may become a tropical depression or tropical storm. Certainly today's satellite images show good, meaty convection cloud. It seems fairly certain that the system will park just to the east of Tampico by late Friday. Thereafter, it is all speculation. During an expected stationary phase as a result of a barricading frontal system moving into the northwestern Gulf, wind shear may increase but the impact of this is not clear. This may cause weakening, of course, but equally may push the system seaward again and modellers are broadcasting an interesting range of wild and woolly tracks. Most are opting for a weakened landfall in the wake of INGRID – another has the cyclone drifting around the bay of Campeche in an undecided spiral - whilst one catastrophist has this describing an arc across the oil leases and into western Florida. I have to be cautious. One day, this guy will be right.

Disturbance fifty three is now centred 350 miles southwest of Bermuda and is closing the distance at 12 knots. The disturbance is rather disorganised however some development is possible over the next couple of days.

HUMBERTO has weakened a tropical depression again – now centred around 800 miles west-sou'west of the Azores. Observed maximum sustained winds are just over 30 knots. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. HUMBERTO should then become extratropical as it merges with a depression approaching from the west.

Stand easy. 

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