Three weak systems provide for a calm weekend

General overview 1500z 20th September 2013 from west to east

Disturbance fifty two is now just 85 miles east of Tampico, Mexico and grinding to a halt. Residual upper level winds from MANUEL from the Pacific side have poured water on the flames of excitement of some of the more ambitious modellers. These are holding development in check and likely to force the system a little further north to merge with a frontal boundary off the Texas Coast by Sunday morning and development prospects have reduced significantly. For now, squalls have increased however, they remain to the south of the centre due to persistent northerly wind shear. As this tracks north, the main threat is now from heavy rain across the coast of Texas.

Disturbance fifty four has formed well out to sea to the east of the Caribbean and moving to the west-nor'west near 10 knots. This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On this track, the disturbance is likely to move through the Leeward Islands on Sunday. There appears to be a weak circulation associated with the disturbance however, environmental conditions do not appear favourable for development.

Disturbance fifty three has weakened to a surface trough about 400 miles south of Bermuda. The disturbance is expected to move to the northeast during the next few days. Environmental conditions appear unfavourable for further development.

Stand easy.