Conditions aloft over the Gulf of Mexico spoiling the storm development party

General overview 1700z 23rd September 2013 from west to east

Conditions aloft in the Gulf of Mexico are putting up a spirited defence this time of late peak season.

The stub of disturbance fifty two, which melded into a frontal system, is headed east across the northern Gulf. At this time of year, fronts snaking out of the Gulf of Mexico sometimes create a low pressure cell in their wake which, if conditions allow, can produce a home grown cyclone. As far as storm-fuelling warm water is concerned, it's party time, but upper level shear is turning off the music, turning on the lights and has locked the drinks cabinet. The remains of fifty two and front-induced low pressure are moving east, bringing showers and thunderstorms to much of the central and northern Gulf over the next couple of days, with some gusty winds, but tropical development is not expected.

Disturbance fifty five is a weak trough of low pressure over the Yucatan peninsular extending into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and is moving to the west-nor'west at 10 knots. Frontal activity will see that no tropical development will take place and this will dissipate over the central Gulf in about 24 hours.

Disturbance fifty three is way out in the sub-tropical Atlantic and has weakened into a trough of low pressure. This will be absorbed by a cold front over the next 24 hours.

Two disturbances have slipped the African coast in the last couple of days. Disturbance fifty six is a weak low level circulation about a day west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west at 5 knots. Disturbance fifty seven is between the Cape Verde Islands and the coast of Africa, also westbound at around 5 knots. Both systems are expected to slowly weaken and dissipate without development over the next 2-3 days.

Stand easy.