Disorganised conditons aloft over the Gulf of Mexico inhibit development

General overview 1900z 24th September 2013 from west to east.

The skies over the Gulf of Mexico are in a mess. Frontal activity is creating busy winds aloft which are putting paid to any vertical development. Frankly, we don't normally see this kind of wind shear until late October. We won't tempt providence just yet. The waters of the Gulf are still invitingly warm and rapid changes can provide rapid opportunities.

Disturbance fifty five which appeared yesteday to the south of the Cayman Islands did reach the Gulf of Mexico but was quickly absorbed into a cold front.

Disturbance fifty two is long gone but the retreating front which absorbed it has a tail-end and pressure system such as this often create a low presure cell in their wake. The front curently snaking west along the Gulf coast has produced a decent new system to the east side of the Gulf of Mexico. This low is however surrounded by dry air and no tropical development is expected. It should move to the east or east-northeast and dissipate over the next 2-3 days. A few thunderstorms with locally gusty winds remain possible.

Disturbance fifty three in the eastern sub-tropical Atlantic, finally gave up the fight and has dissipated.

Disturbances fifty six and seven are still trying to make an Atlantic crossing. Fifty six is just about mid-Atlantic and fifty seven is day west of the Cape Verde Islands. Both are moving west at 5 knots with some localised thunderstorm activity, but there is little enthusiasm for surface organisation for either, and conditions in their path are unfavourable for development.

Stand easy.