Disturbance fifty eight is shaping up to develop and have a crack at the Gulf of Mexico

General overview 1600z 28th September 2013, from west to east -

Disturbance fifty eight is shaping up to develop and have a crack at the Gulf of Mexico. This system is currently located in the southwest Caribbean, having made good only about 2.5 knots to the north over the past 24 hours. Conditions today are not particlarly favourable for development, but neither are they oppressive. By late Monday or early Tuesday, this system will be enjoying warm water, calm conditions aloft and leisurely forward motion to the north, which are all favourable for cyclonic convection. This disturbance could consolidate into a tropical depression by Wednesday as it moves near the Yucatan Channel and then deepen as it enters the Gulf of Mexcio to become a strong tropical depression or tropical storm over the following week. The most likely track is east and north towards Florida Regardless of development, the disturbance is likely to bring enhanced showers and storms to the eastern Gulf, and possibly as far west as the central Gulf late next week. In about 6 to 8 days, an approaching cold front is likely to turn it to the east-nort'east towards Florida.

Disturbance fifty seven is about 1,000 miles east-nor'east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving to the north at 12 knots. The disturbance has become better organised and could become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm in the next day or so. This is at its closest point of approach to the Caribbean and the continental United Statres now, so regardles of growth, wil have no impact on land and is expected to remain out over the open waters of the central Atlantic.

Disturbance fifty nine is an open tropical wave, just one day west of the Cape Verde Islands and headed west at fiften knots. This is struggling to maintain momentum.

Disturbance disturbance fifty six lost all recognisable structure as it entered the Caribbean and has for all intents and purposes, dissipated.

Stand easy. 

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