Disturbance fifty eight headed for US Gulf but with limited ambition
General overview 1900z 29th September 2013, from west to east -
Disturbance fifty eight is now in the south west Caribbean, centred 200 miles south of Jamaica and north-nor'west bound at a snail's pace. By Thursday, this system should pass through the Yucatan channel and enter the Gulf of Mexico . Once in the Gulf, a turn to the north along with an increase in forward speed is likely. By late Friday or early Saturday, the disturbance is expected to move towards the Florida panhandle. The disturbance remains disorganised at present and any short term development is expected to be slow as there is some fairly strong upper level wind shear raining on its parade, and this will keep any developement well below hurricance or even decent tropical storm strength.
Mid- subtropical Atlantic, disturbance fifty seven intensified into tropical depression eleven late last night. Ignore this. It is far out to sea and will stay there. This could become a tropical storm within the next day or so but will only be of interest to fish and sailors.
Disturbance fifty nine is an open tropical wave now centred two days west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west at 12 knots and this is expected to continue for the next few days but conditons for developent are poor and development is unlikely.