Tropical storm JERRY only of limited interest to fish and sailors
General overview 1900z 29th September 2013, from west to east
Disturbance fifty eight is stationary, centred mid-way between Panama and Jamaica. This should soon begin to move to the northwest and by Thursday, it is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico after which a turn to the north is expected and a track towards the Florida Panhandle, although a nudge to the west - Alabama or Mississippi - cannot be ruled out. Despite this, even the keenest catastrophist I like to get an opinion from, accepts that wind shear is going to prevent this from developing into a tropical depression or a storm. Conditions aloft are changeable and if development were to occur, it would not intensify beyond a minimal tropical storm. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to produce heavy squalls with gusts as high as 50 knots in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico later this week
In the last few minutes, the National Hurricane Centre has upgraded disturbance fifty-seven through tropical depression eleven and now tropical storm JERRY. This is now slap bang mid-Atlantic and well to the north of the convergence zone. This is moving east at 5 knots but likely to loop around slowly and aimlessly, buffeted by a stationary high pressure system to the east which will be subjecting JERRY to upper level wind shear. This will not impact on any land mass and will just irritate fish and sailors.
Disturbance fifty nine is three days west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving slightly north of due west at 12 knots. Environmental conditions vary from wet with upper level shear, or dry and dusty - neither of which will encourage development of any significance.