KAREN approaching oil leases but will weaken and turn east

General overview 1100z 4th October 2013, from west to east –

Given that inboxes on both sides of the Atlantic are filling rapidly with updates on KAREN, we produce a simple and early report today.

All eyes are on tropical storm KAREN, currently 270 miles south-sou'west of the mouth of the Mississippi and pushing to the north–nor'west at 7 knots. The current HSI is 5 (2 size / 3 intensity) and forecast to increase only slightly to 6 (2 size / 4 intensity). KAREN has a windfield of 140 miles, mostly deployed to the east, away from the oil leases. The anticipated advancing cold front has arrived rather quicker than expected and has already broken the cycle of vertical convection. As a result, KAREN will not reach hurricane strength now. The timing of landfall has been delayed and we now expect KAREN to turn east before reaching the mouth of the Mississippi shortly after midnight on Sunday local time, then scoot east towards a landfall in the western Florida panhandle. There may be slight intensification on this track, but not by much. This is not an impressive storm. Nonetheless, squalls are likely to reach the deepwater lease areas around Mississippi Canyon in about six hours time and there may be gusts - albeit brief – to hurricane force tomorrow.

Disturbance fifty eight is located two days east of the Caribbean moving west at 5 knots. No development is expecte.

Pathetic storm JERRY has weakened to a remnant area of low pressure and is off radar now.

Stand by coastal Louisiana, Alabama and the Florida panhandle. Do bear in mind, if it wasn't for the cold front, this would have been a very different story.