KAREN weakening quickly

General overview 1700z 5th October 2013, from west to east

Ex-tropical storm KAREN is now centred about 180 miles south west of New Orleans. Aerial and surface observations concur that maximum sustained winds have dropped below tropical storm force and are continuing to weaken as it approaches the Mississippi at around 7 knots. The advaning cold front which was responsible for decapitating KAREN's essential vertical convection column will soon nudge this weakened cyclone to the northeast, harmlessy grazing the south-east tip of the Mississippi delta with a final landfall as a tropical depression to the east of Mobile Bay on Sunday evening. This may even dissipate altogether. A meteorological damp squib.

Disturbance sixty two, to the north-east of the Caribbean is now just an upper-level low with a weak surface trough and no development is expected.

Disturbance fifty-nine is now about half a day's steaming east of the Leeward and Windward Islands, moving west-nor'west at 10 knots but weakening and only a few showers are likely for the Lesser Antilles.

Disturbance sixty-one, just seaborne off coast of Africa, has a glint in its eye and conditions look good for early development as it starts a westward trek. It's a fair wait for this to reach the Caribbean - 8 to 10 days - and if this does peak early, it may turn into the central Atlantic wilderness.

Stand easy.  

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