KAREN merged into cold front
General overview 1700z 6th October 2013, from west to east –
Ex-tropical storm KAREN has been overwhelmed up by the large cold front, which can be seen clearly in satellite imagery sweeping into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The centre of the storm has been shredded and vertical circulation is np longer taking place. The remanants of KAREN are almost impossible to identify now. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to little more than a stiff breeze. Whatever remains of this cyclone will bring showers and thunderstorms, but mostly out at sea and hard to observe as a separate entity from the general non-tropical muck associated with any cold front.
Disturbance sixty two is an elongated and weak trough of low pressure now, well to the north-east of the Caribbean and moving safely to the east-nor'east at 8 knots. I expect the front which put paid to KAREN will also have this low pressure cell away in the next two to three days.
Disturbance fifty nine has crept unnoticed into the Caribbean at 5 knots. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Lesser Antilles today, but otherwise, development is not expected.
Disturbance sixty one is just passing the Cape Verde Islands at 15 knots. Modellers are a little less excited by this than they were yesterday. There is a slight chance that this disturbance could reach the north eastern Caribbean in a week's time but as this has already started to nudge to ther north of track, even this looks unlikely.