Rapidly changing pressure gradients increase risk of opportunist cyclones
General overview 1700z 7th October 2013, from west to east –
As we approach twilight of the 2013 season, frontal activity creates rapidly changing conditions aloft. There is still warm water in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico and columns of rising air can appear and disappear quite rapidly. This is the period of the opportunist storm, and medium to long range forecasts should be taken with a large pinch of salt.
The remnants of KAREN have disappeared into the eastbound cold front in the north eastern Gulf which will produce some rain today in Florida.
Disturbance sixty two is a stationary trough of low pressure about 300 miles south of Bermuda. Some slight intensification is possible over the next few days as it moves north and there is a chance that this could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next few days before merging with the large cold front which is currently protecting the eastern seaboard. There is no tropical threat to the United States from this system but it may produce some enhanced showers and storms for Bermuda over the next few days.
Disturbance fifty-nine is a weak tropical wave in the Caribbean about a day west of the Leeward Islands, moving west at 7 knots and development is not expected.
Disturbance sixty one is two days west of the Cape Verde Islands and moving west at 12 knots. This does have a chance of developing as it turns to the west-nor'west and approaches the north eastern Caribbean in 6 to 7 days although there are some unfavourable environmental conditions across the Atlantic in its path.