A single developing westbound system but facing wind shear

Disturbance sixty three remains the only target on radar across the reporting region. Just past the mid-Atlantic line, this has dropped a little south in latitude, back into the main convergence zone, which still has some warm water and wet air to encourage cyclonic development. The disturbance has become better organised during the past 24 hours however, there is an early indication from today's satellite imagery that circulating winds are starting to become detached from the centre of rotation. This is wind shear – the underwriter's friend – and likely to increase as this approaches the Caribbean. A west-nor'west track is expected at around 10 knots or the next few days which will take this disturbance to the north of the islands of the eastern Caribbean in the middle part of next week.

Not to be downhearted by a season that would seem to be tottering towards its death bed, a few desperate modellers are talking up a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche in a week to ten days from now. I really can't see any evidence that such a system would have much chance to develop. Strong cold fronts have made an early appearance in the Gulf this year. Eastern seaboard may be, but the skies loft over the Gulf are becoming less cyclone friendly by the day. I have not used the words ‘ season over' of course.

Stand easy 

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