Wind shear providing a protective shield for the Caribbean
General overview 1700z 16th October 2013 from west to east –
None of the four weak disturbances have become any better organised since yesterday.
Disturbance sixty five is now about 120 miles south-southeast of Bermuda and moving safely north east at 10 knots. Although the area of low pressure currently consists of an elongated trough, the low may consolidate over the next day or so as it passes east of Bermuda and has an outside chance of developing into a weak tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next three days before it merges into a frontal zone and weakens, but will only interest fish.
Disturbance sixty three is passing to the north east of the Caribbean and weakening. Development is not expected as it continues to the west-nor'west at 10 knots.
Disturbance sixty four is around six hundred miles north of the Amazon delta and moving north west at 10 knots. Upper level winds are as thick as a hedge and development is not expected.
Disturbance sixty six is mid-Atlantic now, headed west at 15 knots, just inside the northern limit of the convergence zone and producing a large area of disorganised showers and storms. Aerial imagery looks promising but none of the modellers are particularly enthusiastic about development as an area of wind shear awaits.