Two new disturbances heading west into upper level shear

From west to east -

Disturbance sixty nine is almost ashore in Mexico as it creeps out of the southern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue but diminish overnight as the disturbance weakens over land.

Another new disturbance designated seventy one has formed in the eastern Caribbean. This is moving west-nor'west at 12 knots as a weak tropical wave. This will produce scattered showers and storms over the next 36 hours but upper level shear is likely to win the day and development is not expected.

Disturbance seventy is becoming a little better organised, currently centred 1300 miles east of the Windward Islands and moving west at and impressive 18 knots. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favourable for some slight strengthening over the next few days as the disturbance travels through an area of moderate wind shear. Aerial images shows an area of showers and storms to the east of the disturbance, and it is possible that a new disturbance could form in the wake of seventy over the next few days as they travel west in tandem toward the eastern Caribbean. At the very least, heavy rain is likely over the Lesser Antilles from late Monday lasting through mid-week, with several inches of rain possible.

Stands easy. 

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