Stand by South Wales, otherwise stand easy

From west to east -

Disturbance sixty nine has gone ashore in Mexico and dissipated.

Disturbance seventy is a tropical wave with showers and storms centred around 780 miles east of the Windward Islands, westbound at 18 knots. The disturbance has not become any better organised during the past 24 hours as this has hit the wall of wind shear across the entire region. This shear is unlikely to significantly abate. This wil keep the disturbance well to the south as it enters the Caribbean and likely to remain that way before a final landfall in central America - if indeed it survives that far. Some minor flooding from a few inches of rain is possible for the Lesser Antilles.

Disturbance seventty one is trotting along two to three days astern of seventy, mirroring its track west at 18 knots. This system continues to produce scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. However, development is not expected and this too will be pushed to the south of the Caribbean, eventually reaching Central America as a weak tropical wave.

There is a dramatic unbroken frontal system stretching from Nicaragua to the British Isles, weaving betweeen high pressure systems - one in the southern US and two in the central Atlantic. This front culminates in the extreme east with a deep low pressure system just a few hours west of the British Isles, where a landfall is expected in the next six to eight hours. Storm cones are aloft.

A rather unusual sign-off today then - stand by South Wales, otherwise stand easy. 

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