One single disturbance under way and prospects of the next cyclone diminishing

The entire Atlantic basin is dominated by a ring of high pressure cells with a very strongly defined frontal system crossing diagonally from Florida to the Faeroe Islands. This front is surrounded by bands of upper level shear which will put paid to any approaching low pressure cells with ideas above their station.

Disturbance seventy is the only system on the move. This has weakened and opened up to a fairly weak wave between Colombia and the Windward Passage (between Haiti and Cuba). The wave is moving west at a good speed - almost 20 knots which, even on a good day, would be enough to prevent surface circulation from forming. Upper level shear associated with the predominant front makes development almost impossible and this is likely to go aground over central America, with enhanced showers and thunderstorms but no tropical development.

There is still chatter amongst the modellers that a weak low pressure system will develop in the central Caribbean over the weekend and early next week. I have polled the more reliable commentators today and there seems to be some moderating opinion. Certainly the European and American modellers who can usually be relied upon for an astute view, are backing off the idea of this developing, and even the usual catastrophist is finding it hard to justify any talk of cyclonic development.

Stand easy