A single intrepid trough in the central Caribbean

Disturbance seventy two is around a day's steaming time into the Caribbean, has picked up speed a little to 12 knots, and is headed slightly north of west as it begins to turn to the north. The disturbance is weak and ill-defined although making its presence felt with scattered showers over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the central Caribbean. This disturbance should turn north over the next day or so and development is not expected. There is one voice of dissent of course. There is an isolated patch of showers associated with this trough to the north east of Puerto Rico and one sole modeller considers that there is a slight chance that a new disturbance could form from this, and may even enter the southern Gulf of Mexico and develop. Knowing who this is, and the barrage of upper level winds across the area, I would say this is not going to happen. I will be wrong one day, of course. But not today.

Stand easy