Disturbance One in US Gulf beset by upper level shear...
General summary Saturday 31st May 2014
Disturbance One has been identified in the central Gulf of Mexico centred a couple of hundred miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi. This is bringing squally weather to the deep water lease areas,with wind gusts over 40 knots in places. Strong upper level shear wil prevent vertical develolment and will push this system harmlessly to the east.
The chatterers are watching a low presssure cell forming in the far south west of the Bay of Campeche, partly associated with an identified disturbance in the eastern Pacific. Environmental conditons are currently unfavourable for this to develop, however this could have a slight window of opportunity in the next few days. Opinions on track variably considerably, from a pointless, undeveloped skulk ashore into Mexico to a wildly overoptimistic lusty galllop towards Florida. Regardless of development, squally weather with gusts over 50 knots are likely within 180 miles of the nominal centre. Any track east of north will bring heavy squalls into the deep water lease areas later in the week, perhaps even reaching the Gulf coast.