Early whispers of a system developing in the Bay of Campeche...

General summary Sunday 1st June 2014

On the official 'first day of the storm season', we have our first mention of potential storm formation, and from a reasonably sane source.

The deep-sea tropical Atlantic basin is covered in a wide belt of sand-filled air from sub-Saharan Africa. We can almost dismiss the entire convergence zone from Banjul and Barbados for the month of June. It's a sand-pit. No moisture - no storm development.

The same cannot be said for the western Caribbean and far south west of the Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance One - loosely centred 150 miles sou-sou'east of the Mississippi delta is still suffering from the effects of upper level shear and continuing on a lazy north easterly heading towards the Florida panhandle. This is causing squally conditons in the deep water lease areas, with gusts of up to 40 knots in places. This will bring mucky weather to the central and eastern Gulf over the coming days, but will not develop.

All eyes on the far south western Bay of Campeche. There is a busy little system in the eastern Pacific which is likely to bring some heavy flooding to the Pacific coast of Guatemala in the coming days. Tropical systems rarely jump the fence between Caribbean and Pacific, however the windfield and moisture associated with this will potentially be felt in the Bay of Campeche, around the time that a low pressure cell is expected to develop. All highly speculative of course, but on the basis of this, a fairly reliable US source was talking up a tropical storm earlier today, backing off a little in the last few hours. Undoubtedly, something is expected to develop towards the end of the coming week, and a weak tropical cyclone cannot be ruled out.

We'll see.

Stand easy