Disturbance one creating low pressure trough and an opening for development...

General summary Tuesday 3rd June 2014

Disturbance One has opened up into a low level trough stretching from southern Alabama to the far south west of the Bay of Campeche. Upper level shear is keeping a lid on this and pushing associated squally weather east into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is likely to stay put for the next few days without development, until it is joined by the outreach of the Pacific system, currently closing on the coast of Guatemala. This has the potential to kickstart development in the southern Bay of Campeche late into the coming weekend. The modellers are split over this, offering a range of strengths from tropical storm to weak depression, and with tracks east towards Florida and west towards eastern Mexico. None, however are expecting this to head to the north. 

Stand easy.