Disturbance One set to gain energy from inbound Pacific system BORIS

General summary Wednesday 4th June 2014

Winds from the Sahara are still pushing dry air across the convergence zone rendering it a storm-development hostile sand-pit. This is likely to remain so for the month of June.

Disturbance One has slipped south west into the Bay of Campeche with a trough extending north into the Gulf of Mexico. The system is still in the doldrums (as far as motion is concerned) and has rallied only slightly overnight, but is still victim to strong upper level shear. The system we referred to in the eastern Pacific has made a landfall in south western Mexico after deepening into tropical depression BORIS. The outfield of this will boost development-favourable conditions in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend and the more enthusiastic weather watchers are giving figures for cyclonic development of between 20 and 50 percent early next week. The only consensus on track is that it is unlikely to make the northern Gulf. The European modellers are keen on a west-nor'westerly motion towards the Mexican coast whilst the marginally more plausible American model is diametrically opposed and has this loafing around in the Bay of Campeche for a few days before making an east-nor ‘easterly heading toward the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico and on towards Cuba. All highly speculative of course.

Stand easy.  

Back