Disturbance One building up a head of steam

General summary Thursday 5th June 2014

From west to east:

Turbo-charged by the remnants of Pacific depression BORIS, disturbance One is now becoming better organised in the far south of the Bay of Campeche and the winter covers are being taken off the reconnaissance aircraft. All indicators point at this developing over the next 24 to 48 hours. The majority of the foul weather associated with this is being felt over the eastern Bay of Campeche, Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico. Wind shear has been decreasing in the area as the protective upper level trough over the coast of Texas drifts away. Thunderstorms will occur over the western Bay of Campeche over the next couple of days, bringing gusts of 45 knots over the next 48 hours. There is no doubt now that this will head west into Mexico and may develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm. Although this system will have a relatively short life in terms of distance by sea, it is likely to be very slow moving and capable of picking up large amounts of water, bringing the first floods of the season to the Mexican coast – the area around Tuxpan seeming most likely.

The first discernible tropical wave could emerge off the west coast of Africa in about 2 days time but a sand pit awaits and development is very unlikely.

Stand easy.