Disturbance Six shaping up for storm strength and a coastal track.

A single forecaster strayed from the pack yesterday and predicted a coastwise track for disturbance six, which is now gathering credibility. Currently centred 150 miles southeast of Daytona Beach and tracking south west at 4 knots, this is still following the predicted round turn but is expected not to complete a 360 degree loop but will instead start to follow the eastern seaboard across the coastal sections of North Carolina. Much will depend on how large of a clockwise loop it will make before it turns to the north-nor'east and begins accelerating. Beyond the Carolinas, the system is now expected to pass just east of Nova Scotia on Sunday or early Monday, then approach eastern Newfoundland late Monday.

Decreasing upper-level wind shear in a day or two will allow for strengthening and it could become a tropical storm in 48 hours or so. There is a chance it could even attain hurricane strength before moving across the Outer Banks on Friday, but most guidance indicates it will be a moderate to strong tropical storm.

Stand easy