Disturbance Eight mid-Atlantic but sand-bound.

General outlook Tuesday 8th July 2014-07-08

From west to east:

Dull disturbance seven dissipated overnight, unsurprisingly.

A new low pressure wave has piped up mid-Atlantic, westbound at 10 knots. This is an area of showers and localised squalls associated with a typical west-bound tropical wave at this time of the season. Nonetheless, some strengthening is possible over the next day or two, but overall conditions are not favourable for development. If this survives the crossing at all, it is likely to move across the southern Lesser Antilles late in the week and dissipate.

Normally, we would expect the number of westbound waves leaving the African coast to increase in the second half of July. Sub-Saharan Africa is normally the bridal suite for Caribbean storm conception, but there is more dry desert air in the eastern Atlantic than usual - a passion killer for vertical and surface organisation. For this reason, any disturbances appearing in the west are less likely to be from the traditional sources, but from sneak encounters where there is a break in upper level shear over warmer water.

Stand easy.

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