Decision time for disturbance twelve

Disturbance ten finally succumbed as it passed north of Lake Maracaibo overnight and only a few wisps of scattered pointless clouds remain in the far south west Caribbean.

Disturbance twelve is mid Atlantic now, still westbound at 12 knots. This system which showed a spark of enthusiasm yesterday is now learning the tough lesson of developing circulation and drawing in sand-laden air. Without moisture at its core, this is a wasted effort. Credit where credit is due though, it took some determination to organise and if it can maintain this for the next day or so into moist westerly longitudes, it may have a fighting chance of becoming a weak tropical storm as it continues to the west-nor'west, but this is still likely to curve early and miss the Caribbean altogether.

Stand easy