Early signs of a break in the eastern Atlantic

Disturbance fourteen is closing on the Yucatan peninsular now as it moves west into Central America at 15 knots as a weak open wave. A slight enhancement of showers and thunderstorms is possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico, but there is no chance of development.

Disturbance sixteen is now a day and a half into the Caribbean and continue to push west-nor'west at 16 knots. Some moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible for another 48 hours before this follows fourteen into Central America without chance of development.

Following our comment of early signs of disappearance of the Saharan dry air mass from the convergence zone, the chatterers have begun speculating. Today, a respected American modeller has been suggesting that a moderate to strong tropical wave may emerge from Africa, which may have a slight chance of becoming a weak tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic in about 6 to 10 days.

Until then, stand easy.