Three disturbances under way as the storm season shifts up a notch
General outlook Monday 11th August 2014
From west to east -
Disturbance fourteen made an uneventful home run and disappeared into southern Mexico last night.
Disturbance sixteen is a weak tropical wave in the western Caribbean that could cause more heavy thunderstorms for Cuba and Jamaica today as it continues to press west at 17 knots, but will follow disturbance fourteen into anonymity as it approaches central America in the next couple of days. No development is expected.
Disturbance eighteen piped up overnight, but little more than a weak tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles. It is producing some showers and storms over the Lesser Antilles as it moves west at 18 knots, but wind shear will keep a lid on this.
The frontal boundary off the Carolina coast still needs watching. Although there are no indications of organisation within the area of thunderstorms associated with the front, such weather systems can occasionally develop into tropical cyclones. This should move east-nor'east to northeast along the frontal boundary over the next few days.
Disturbance seventeen is a strong tropical wave, now centred about sixty miles south west of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is moving to the west at 18 knots. There is still a wide belt of dry desert air across the convergence zone which will keep development down, but this does have signs of enough in reserve to make the western Atlantic and perhaps the Caribbean in 7 to 8 days where conditions are a little more favourable. Speculation may be a little early, but the route is clear ahead for this to reach the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Campeche by the August 21st.
More low pressure cells are visible from aerial imagery of sub-Saharan Africa, some of which will make their way towards the eastern Atlantic to begin the trek west.