Some excitement in the eastern Atlantic

Disturbance eighteen is opening up into a weak wave centred loosely over the Cayman Islands and spread about a hundred miles along a north east – south west axis and moving west at 12 knots. Development is not expected.

Disturbance seventeen is now around 600 miles due north of the Amazon delta and moving west at 14 knots. This really hasn't recovered from ploughing sand in the eastern half of the convergence zone, but is now in wet air as it approaches the Lesser Antilles so there is a slim chance of seeing a spark of life. This will be brief since upper level wind shear makes hostile conditions for cyclonic development. The general consensus is for this to head towards Florida and the Bahamas, but there is little chance of development.

Disturbance nineteen is at least one respected forecaster's pin up model. Currently stationary two days steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands, this is showing signs of rotation and there is some warm water and still air to add a little spice to its vertical structure. One US modeller has hung his hat on this and is predicting some decent development around the early to middle part of next week after it merges with an area of thunderstorms which moved off the coast of Africa this morning. It is entirely possible that the merger of the two cells actually interrupts and demolishes its vertical organisation, so thoughts of development are far from unanimous. The main disturbance is expected to remain generally stationary, or even drift east a little, until after it merges. Once to watch

Stand easy. 

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